Here’s a bold prediction that’s already sparking debate: Political strategist Prashant Kishor, founder of Jan Suraaj, has declared that Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s days in power are numbered. But here’s where it gets controversial—Kishor argues that the impressive 65-67% voter turnout in the Bihar Assembly elections isn’t a sign of support for the ruling government. Instead, he claims it reflects a wave of ‘anti-incumbency’ sentiment among the electorate. Is Kishor right, or is he reading too much into the numbers?
As the second and final phase of voting concluded on Sunday, November 9, with 122 seats up for grabs on November 11, the political atmosphere in Bihar is anything but clear. The first phase, held on November 6, saw a record 65% turnout, and the results are set to be announced on November 14. But Kishor warns that without scientific exit polls, any predictions about the outcome are ‘baseless.’ He describes the electoral landscape as ‘very messy,’ leaving room for plenty of speculation and debate.
In a candid interview with news agency ANI, Kishor stated, ‘Nitish ji is on his way out. Don’t forget this. A 65-67% turnout in Bihar isn’t a vote of confidence for the incumbent government—it’s simply not possible. The situation is too chaotic, and anyone claiming otherwise is speaking without evidence.’ But is this chaos a sign of change, or just political noise?
Kishor also weighed in on the role of women voters, suggesting that government schemes like the ₹10,000 cash benefit under Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana, cycle and uniform distribution, and pension assistance may have boosted turnout. However, he clarified that the seemingly higher participation of women is partly due to the ‘denominator effect’—fewer women are registered voters compared to men. ‘Women have always voted, but the percentage appears higher because of registration disparities. Still, Nitish Kumar’s schemes and a reduction in social anger are noticeable,’ he explained. Does this mean women are the real game-changers in this election, or is their impact being overstated?
Earlier, Kishor criticized the BJP-led Central government for prioritizing Gujarat over Bihar in industrial development. ‘The BJP takes votes from Bihar but doesn’t set up factories here. For 15 years, PM Modi has focused on Gujarat, not Bihar,’ he said during a campaign rally. Is this a fair criticism, or is Kishor overlooking the bigger picture?
Kishor didn’t spare the opposition either, slamming both the Mahagathbandhan and the ruling NDA alliance. ‘Is this acceptable to you? Will Nitish Chacha stay or go? Do you want ‘Lalu ka Lalten’ or the ‘Jungle Raj of Lalten’? If not Lalu, Nitish, or Modi, then who?’ he asked rhetorically. With the NDA aiming to retain power and the Mahagathbandhan seeking to regain it, the Jan Suraaj party has also entered the fray, contesting over
