Bold claim: Nicola Sturgeon’s flagship pledge to close the attainment gap by 2026 is now described as irrefutably broken, based on fresh figures that suggest it could take well over a century to fully close the gap. The former First Minister has acknowledged that, with the benefit of hindsight, she could have done more on education, even as she points to a package of anti-poverty measures like the Scottish Child Payment that supported her broader aims.
New education statistics add pressure on the SNP government. The latest data indicate that at current rates, the primary numeracy gap would take 133 years to close, while the literacy gap would take 57 years. At a recent London book festival, Sturgeon reflected on her record, saying the attainment gap was the one area she would have approached differently, and expressing pride in some initiatives while admitting she could have done more in education.
Sturgeon’s remarks echo through the current administration, with Education Secretary Jenny Gilruth defending progress. The government reports that among primary pupils assessed in P1, P4, and P7 in 2024/25, literacy attainment reached 74.5 percent—the highest on record—while numeracy stood at 80.3 percent, unchanged from the previous year and the best result to date. In secondary schools, literacy and numeracy attainment among S3 students reached 90.9 percent and 90.9 percent respectively, both higher than in prior years. Gilruth framed these outcomes as evidence of steady progress, attributing gains to a decade of Scottish Government investment of £1.75 billion in the Scottish Attainment Challenge aimed at supporting children affected by poverty.
Opposition responses were swift. Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie argued that with Nicola Sturgeon’s deadline approaching, the SNP remains far from closing the gap, calling the pledge irrevocably broken. Labour’s Paul O’Kane accused the SNP of congratulating itself for incremental improvements after nearly two decades in power. Conservative Miles Briggs likewise criticized the persistence of a gap in basic literacy and numeracy more than ten years after the pledge. These critiques underscore a broader contention that promises have not yet translated into decisive, lasting results.
The statistics also highlight other shifts in Scottish education. The number of pupils receiving Additional Support Needs neared 300,000, with rises in autism, dyslexia, and mental health diagnoses over the past decade. While concerns about classroom violence persist, there were no removals from the pupil register in 2024/25, and expulsions were zero. The data provide a detailed breakdown of suspension reasons, including 23 incidents of wilful fire raising and 11 instances of indecent exposure. Ethnicity-based exclusions show White Scottish students at 11.6 per 100,000, Gypsy Traveller students at 22.6 per 100,000, and Chinese students at 1.6 per 100,000—illustrating uneven patterns in disciplinary actions.
Teacher headcount remains a point of contention. The government’s 2021 manifesto promised 3,500 additional teachers and classroom assistants over the current Parliament. While total teacher numbers rose to 53,475 in 2025—up 63 from the previous year—the overall figure remains short of the 55,000 level cited when the SNP first took power in 2007. The EIS noted the disparity, arguing that fundings and staffing promises have not translated into secure, permanent teaching jobs, and warning that thousands of educated professionals may seek opportunities elsewhere if stable positions do not materialize.
Separate data also show a notable reduction in persistent absence, though overall absence remained above pre-Covid levels. About 28.5 percent of pupils missed at least 10 percent of the school year, while the total absence rate fell from 9.7 percent to 9 percent. NASUWT’s Mike Corbett criticized the situation, warning that exhausted teachers and reduced one-on-one support could undermine progress and that promises to reduce contact time may remain unfulfilled without urgent staffing action.
Concluding outlook: the latest statistics capture a complex picture—significant gains in literacy and numeracy in many years, ongoing struggles with the attainment gap, and persistent concerns about teacher recruitment and retention. The debate over the SNP’s education record will likely intensify as stakeholders weigh progress against promises and expectations for future generations. Would you agree that the current trajectory justifies a hard look at policy priorities, or do you believe the gains demonstrate meaningful improvement despite the challenges? Invite your thoughts in the comments.
