The Holy Land's Tensions: A Six-Decade Agreement Shattered
'Al-Aqsa is a detonator': a powerful statement that encapsulates the volatile situation surrounding one of the world's most sacred sites. This phrase, uttered by Daniel Seidemann, a Jerusalem lawyer, highlights the potential for conflict and unrest that has now come to a head. The six-decade-old agreement governing Muslim and Jewish prayer at Jerusalem's al-Aqsa mosque compound has crumbled under the weight of political and religious extremism, leaving the region on the brink of a new crisis.
The collapse of this agreement is a result of a series of events that have escalated tensions in recent months. Jewish extremists, backed by the Israeli government, have been making bold moves to change the status quo, which has historically been a delicate balance. The arrests of Muslim caretaker staff, bans on access for Muslims, and incursions by radical Jewish groups have all contributed to this breakdown. The arrest of the imam of al-Aqsa mosque during evening prayers on the first night of Ramadan is a stark example of the new reality.
The al-Aqsa mosque, known as the al-Haram al-Sharif to Muslims, is a sacred site that encompasses the seventh-century Dome of the Rock shrine. To Jews, it is the Temple Mount, the site of the 10th-century BCE first temple and second temple. The agreement, dating back to the aftermath of the 1967 war, stipulates that only Muslims are permitted to pray in the compound. However, changes in the status quo have historically shown the potential to ignite unrest and conflict, as seen in the second Palestinian intifada in 2000.
The current situation is particularly sensitive due to the far-right leadership in both the Jerusalem police and the Shin Bet internal security force. The national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, has made inflammatory visits to the al-Aqsa site and supported unilateral changes to the status quo, allowing Jews to pray and sing in the compound. The appointment of an ideological ally as the Jerusalem police chief and the reported backing of the prime minister have further exacerbated the situation.
The Jerusalem Waqf, the Jordanian-appointed foundation managing the al-Aqsa site, has come under increasing pressure. Staff have been detained without charge, banned from entering the site, and offices have been ransacked. The cumulative effect has strained the Waqf's ability to cater to the 10,000 Muslims expected to come to pray at al-Aqsa mosque during Ramadan. The Palestinian-run Jerusalem governorate provided different figures, but the overall picture is clear: the status quo is collapsing.
The International Crisis Group's senior Israel/Palestine analyst, Amjad Iraqi, notes that there are many factors contributing to the dangerous situation this Ramadan. The Israeli government's reduced concern for regional powers' opinions and the diffusion of impunity have emboldened Israelis to act outside of perceived political, military, and diplomatic constraints. The question now is: how will this situation unfold, and who will bear the consequences?
