The world watched with bated breath as the United States launched a surprise raid to capture Venezuela's leader, Nicolás Maduro. But what does this mean for Taiwan, an island nation that has long been in China's crosshairs?
The situation in Venezuela, where Maduro was swiftly taken into custody, sparked immediate comparisons to how a similar assault on Taiwan could play out. China, with its massive military and territorial ambitions, has long considered Taiwan, a self-governing island of 23 million people, as part of its own territory.
The imbalance of power is striking. Consider the US, with the world's most formidable military, versus Venezuela, a middle-income country of roughly 30 million. Taiwan, like Venezuela, relies on friendly nations for its defense. This scenario has raised concerns and prompted experts to analyze the potential implications for Taiwan.
But here's where it gets controversial...
Emily Thornberry, chair of the UK's foreign affairs committee, warned that the US action might embolden China and Russia. However, events in the Americas are unlikely to change Beijing's fundamental views on Taiwan.
Firstly, China views Taiwan as a domestic matter, not subject to international law. They see it as part of their territory. Ryan Hass, a former US diplomat, stated, "Beijing has not refrained from kinetic or other actions on Taiwan out of deference to international law and norms. It has pursued a strategy of coercion without violence."
Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based scholar, echoed this view: "Cross-strait relations are not international relations and are not governed by international law. The United States’ approach to Venezuela holds no relevance for cross-strait relations."
On Chinese social media, a popular commentator wrote: "Stop linking the US actions in Venezuela to the Taiwan issue … There is absolutely no ‘comparability’ in terms of nature, methods or objectives."
And this is the part most people miss...
The biggest deterrent for China is the military balance in the Taiwan Strait. While China has a more powerful military, Taiwan is promised support from the US in case of an attack. China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) conducted intense military drills around Taiwan, showcasing its ability to blockade the island.
The US Department of Defense believes the PLA aims to achieve a "strategic decisive victory" over Taiwan by 2027, particularly with advancements in military AI, biotechnology, and hypersonic missiles.
However, some in Taiwan believe the US military operation in Venezuela might actually give Beijing pause. They point out that Venezuela's Chinese-sourced weapons failed to defend against the US attack. According to ChinaPower, nearly 90% of China's arms sales to the Americas between 2010 and 2020 went to Venezuela.
Lin Ying Yu, an associate professor at Tamkang University in Taipei, questioned the effectiveness of Chinese-made weapons. Sung Wen-Ti, a fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, believes the US military's capacity for a "decapitation strike" should deter Beijing.
Controversy alert!
Donald Trump's disregard for international rules and the speed at which Western leaders have followed suit reveals a shift in global norms. The UK's Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, declined to condemn Trump's actions, despite experts calling the attack illegal. Many European leaders have also been hesitant.
China has condemned the US action, stating it "seriously violates international law." China, along with Russia, backed an emergency UN security council meeting over the legality of the operation.
Taiwan's government has remained silent, despite President Lai Ching-te's emphasis on defending international rules to prevent a Chinese invasion.
A popular Taiwanese blogger argued that to avoid becoming "another Venezuela," Taiwan should avoid causing trouble for the US. The YouTuber Chiu Wei-chieh, known as “Froggy” Chiu, wrote that Taiwan should unite and not become easy prey.
What do you think? Does the US action in Venezuela change the dynamics in the Taiwan Strait? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
